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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 27, 2025
Updated: Sun Apr 27 22:04:03 UTC 2025  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: On February 23, 2021 the Probabilistic Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became operational. Please see the Service Change Notice 20-115 for more details.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Apr 29, 2025 - Wed, Apr 30, 2025 D6Fri, May 02, 2025 - Sat, May 03, 2025
D4Wed, Apr 30, 2025 - Thu, May 01, 2025 D7Sat, May 03, 2025 - Sun, May 04, 2025
D5Thu, May 01, 2025 - Fri, May 02, 2025 D8Sun, May 04, 2025 - Mon, May 05, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272200

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

   Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

   ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday...
   A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring
   lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west
   Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities
   remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western
   Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily
   far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain
   receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold
   front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days
   3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope
   wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial
   distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and
   precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for
   Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday.

   ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday...
   Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter
   wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the
   Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and
   ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively
   tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days
   7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer
   could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the
   Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical
   probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico
   where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation
   leading up to the weekend across this region is expected.

   ..Williams.. 04/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: April 27, 2025
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