ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281648

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

   Valid 281700Z - 291200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR
   WESTERN TRANS-PECOS...

   ...Lower Peninsula of Michigan...
   Current surface observations and short term model guidance suggests
   at least a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across
   the Lower Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon. Substantial
   advection of low-level upstream moisture below 850 mb is not
   expected until this evening as a warm front moves in from the
   southwest. Relative humidity could fall to 20-25 percent range in
   some areas with south winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, so Elevated
   highlights were added to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

   ...Southwest and portions of Southern High Plains...
   Forecast remains on track with breezy southwest winds, low relative
   humidity and dry fuels resulting in elevated to critical fire
   weather conditions expected through today. An intensifying surface
   lee trough across the Northern Plains will maintain breezy winds
   across the High Plains of Colorado. Elevated highlights were
   extended into far southeastern Colorado where minimal precipitation
   has fallen amid dry fuels, enhanced winds and relative humidity
   falling into the single digits are expected this afternoon.

   ..Williams.. 04/28/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt
   of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern
   Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee
   trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. 

   ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos...
   West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air
   mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of
   enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure
   gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee
   trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15
   percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High
   Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph
   sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will
   promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over
   southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with
   elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)