SPC AC 280817

   Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
   NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern
   Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects
   into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible
   across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday.
   Surface low development is expected across western Texas on
   D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central
   Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is
   expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of
   central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon,
   additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near
   the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe
   wind, hail, and a tornado.

   ...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma...
   Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central
   Texas into Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon will pose some severe
   potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection
   and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable
   instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead
   of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells
   before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur.
   Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep
   lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low
   level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early
   supercell modes.

   ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z