Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
235 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Northwest Arkansas
South-Central/Southeast Kansas
Far Southwest Missouri
Northern Oklahoma
Far Northeast Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Tuesday morning from 235 AM until 1000 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northwest OK
and the far northeast TX Panhandle in the vicinity of a cold front
progressing southward. This initial activity could pose a threat for
large hail. This development will likely grow upscale with an
attendant threat for damaging gusts as it moves eastward across
northern OK and south-central/southeast KS into far southwest MO and
far northwest AR. Some hail is possible within the stronger cells
across these areas as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles west southwest
of Alva OK to 20 miles east northeast of Joplin MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Mosier
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 186 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK TX 290735Z - 291500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
95WSW AVK/ALVA OK/ - 20ENE JLN/JOPLIN MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /19WSW MMB - 40W SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 37090024 38139416 36399416 35370024
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 186 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 186
VALID 291210Z - 291340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ADM TO
20 SSW CQB TO 20 NNE OKC TO 25 SE END TO 20 SW PNC TO 5 SSW PNC
TO 25 NE PNC TO 20 N BVO TO 20 SSW CNU TO 15 N CNU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 599
..JEWELL..04/29/25
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-291340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-037-099-125-133-291340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
$$
MOC011-097-119-145-291340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON JASPER MCDONALD
NEWTON
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-081-083-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-125-
131-143-145-147-291340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE LINCOLN
LOGAN MAYES NOBLE
NOWATA OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE
ROGERS TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 186
VALID 291100Z - 291240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CSM
TO 55 N CSM TO 20 SW AVK TO 10 ENE AVK TO 30 NNW PNC TO 30 WNW
CNU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 599
..JEWELL..04/29/25
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-291240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC019-021-035-037-049-099-125-133-205-291240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY
CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON
$$
MOC011-097-119-145-291240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON JASPER MCDONALD
NEWTON
$$
OKC001-003-011-015-017-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041-043-047-
049-051-053-067-071-073-081-083-087-093-097-103-105-109-113-115-
117-119-125-131-137-143-145-147-291240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALFALFA BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE
CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON
CRAIG CREEK CUSTER
DELAWARE DEWEY GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GRANT
JEFFERSON KAY KINGFISHER
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN
MAJOR MAYES NOBLE
NOWATA OKLAHOMA OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS STEPHENS
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 186
VALID 291055Z - 291140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 599
..JEWELL..04/29/25
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-291140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC019-021-035-037-049-099-125-133-205-291140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY
CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON
$$
MOC011-097-119-145-291140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON JASPER MCDONALD
NEWTON
$$
OKC001-003-011-021-035-037-039-041-043-047-053-071-073-083-093-
097-103-105-113-115-117-119-131-143-145-147-291140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALFALFA BLAINE
CHEROKEE CRAIG CREEK
CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY
GARFIELD GRANT KAY
KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR
MAYES NOBLE NOWATA
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGERS TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 186
VALID 290955Z - 291040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..04/29/25
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-291040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC019-021-035-037-049-099-125-133-191-205-291040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY
CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SUMNER
WILSON
$$
MOC011-097-119-145-291040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON JASPER MCDONALD
NEWTON
$$
OKC001-003-011-021-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-053-059-071-073-
083-093-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-129-131-143-145-147-151-153-
291040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALFALFA BLAINE
CHEROKEE CRAIG CREEK
CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
HARPER KAY KINGFISHER
LOGAN MAJOR MAYES
NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
ROGER MILLS ROGERS TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC211-295-483-291040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.